Thursday, April 30, 2015

Beckham's Success Leaving Cruz Undervalued

The NFL DRAFT is here!  I will be tuning in late this evening, too, but rookie fantasy projections do us no good when we don't know what team they will be playing for yet.  I'm choosing to stick with the NFC East, not by bias, but it's because of what caught my eye when I saw a projection for the outstanding Odell Beckham, Jr. 

The WR Top 10 list I found, at fantasypros.com, where 24 expert opinions are compiled, was relatively familiar to last year's list.  It's there you can find all your annual goodies:  Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, A.J. Green, etc.  OBJ just seemed to jump out at me.  Being only second year pro and coming off an amazing rookie season, Beckham seems to be a great choice as your #7 WR pick.

Leading up to the 2014 season, Victor Cruz led the rankings for Giants receivers.  At fftoday.com, Cruz was a solid #13, coming off a fantastic, salsa dancing season.  Now, he is all but forgotten with the new star in town. 

While a significant ACL injury may still play a part in his new ranking, a drop to 39th (fantasypros) is too low!  He managed two 100 yard games in five starts before the injury, and has had a decent amount of time to recover.

I don't want to hear that Eli Manning can't support two top WRs.  (I probably won't because nobody reads this.  Congratulations, you're a nobody!)  Eli had two 1,000 yard receivers in 2011 (Cruz, Nicks). 

Listen folks, I buy OBJ's skill, athletecism, and dedication to the game.  I just don't understand how a wideout with multiple one thousand yard seasons is dropped just one slot ahead of Brandon LaFell!  That's right, the guy who couldn't catch a wafting balloon in a slight breeze is almost ranked ahead...nevermind...

Be smart and bump Cruz up to his proper place in your personal rankings this year.  You'll be one more smart choice closer to your championship.

Friday, April 24, 2015

Tim Tebow Will Destroy Sam Bradford's Fantasy Value

When you start, you start with a bang!  The media loves to talk about the Eagles, Chip Kelly, and Tim Tebow while many of you can't stand to listen.  But you still click, don't you?  Don't you?  You don't?  You do!  That's why you're here!

A quick intro before we get to anything else--my goal with this blog is to make well-reasoned predictions based on what I see happening on teams around the NFL.  All are welcome in my little universe, including friends, acquaintances, and haters.  I especially love haters!  This paragraph is boring.  There's much more time for all this later...

Tim Tebow, who helped some of you to fantasy championships in 2011 (and turned most of you into fantasy chumps), is now back in a place where the system best suits his abilities.  No, he will not be a starter, but he will be a game changer for Chip's offense, provided he makes the roster.  Let's take a quick look into the rankings for Philadelphia last year:

3rd - Points/PPG
5th - Total YPG
6th - Pass YPG
9th - Rush YPG

So far, very little improvement needed. 

23rd - Red Zone Scoring Percentage (49.15%)

Yikes!

Class, what does Chip like more than anything else?  SCORING.  What does he like to score?  TOUCHDOWNS.  What happens when Chip doesn't score touchdowns?  HE SENDS HIS FIELD GOAL UNIT OUT!

You are about to see something never before seen in the NFL (again) this season.  Because Mariota will not make it on the Eagles roster, Chip Kelly will use a 2 QB system.  With Bradford's arm and Tebow's legs, the Eagles are going to be 1st in PPG this year.  The between the 20's QB will be either Bradford or Sanchez and the inside the 5 QB will be Tebow.  The 2 QB system will save Bradford's knees and play to Tebow's strengths, strengths that will allow him to vulture 4-6 TDs this year from the starting QB.

Don't pick Bradford unless there is a great value to the pick.  If Tebow does not make the team, Sam is still an option in the middle rounds.  Consider yourself warned. 

 In DFS, Tebow may be a sneaky pick at QB early in the season.

The first QB TD vulture is on the horizon!